the effective stacks are 70 100bb. You still use SPR concepts
for postflop play, just not for choosing a fixed preflop bet size.
¨ð If you expect substantial profit from stealing after the flop,
you might raise more preflop. Bigger preflop bets make for
larger postflop pots, which in turn usually result in greater
profit if you are taking down most postflop pots. As a rule of
thumb, if you think you ll take down significantly more than
your share of pots that see a flop, you want more money in the
pot preflop. For example, consider those times you raise, get
3-bet, and call. Two see the flop. If you expect to win, say, 70
percent of these types of pots, you have reason to raise more
preflop.*
For postflop play, when choosing a fixed bet size, start with these
concepts:
¨ð When your preflop range yields more made hands than missed
hands on the flop, start by betting bigger on the flop. Adjust
from there.
*
This is just a rule of thumb. It can fail because it does not consider implied
odds. For example, say you expect to win 70 percent of the pots. The rule of thumb
says get more money in. But suppose the average pot you win is small, as it usually
is with successful c-bet bluffs. If the pots you lose are a lot larger, say after
unsuccessful c-betting, overall you can lose money postflop even though you re
winning 70 percent of the pots.
UNDERSTANDING FIXED BET SIZES 263
¨ð When your preflop range will be strongly weighted toward
missed hands and weak pairs, start by betting smaller on the
flop. Again, you will have to adjust from there.
Choosing the right fixed bet sizes requires extensive estimating.
Our suggestions for starting points are just that: starting points. You
will have to adapt your fixed bet sizes to your game conditions. Try
our recommended starting points out first, but don t be shy about
changing them if they aren t working.
Planning Big Bluffs
Big, multi-street bluffs are relatively uncommon in most no-limit
games. But the threat of a big, multi-street bluff hangs over nearly
every hand and plays a role in many decisions. No-limit would be a
much simpler game if big bluffs didn t exist. For instance, say you
have top pair and you re out of position. If you can somehow know
for sure that your opponent will never bluff all three streets, then you
can adopt a very simple strategy. Just check and call the flop and turn
and then check again on the river. If your opponent bets, it s for
value, and you re beaten and can fold.
But if your opponent sometimes bluffs the river, everything
changes. Now you can t necessarily just call the flop and turn because
sometimes you ll put all that money in, only to get bluffed out on the
river. Or you ll sometimes pay off a better hand on the river. The
mere threat of a big bluff forces you to reexamine your strategy for
the entire hand.
So even though big bluffs actually occur in only a small percentage
of all no-limit hands, the threat of a big bluff will alter correct
strategy on many hands. Thus, it s critical to learn how to launch
those big bluffs when they re appropriate.
Big bluffs play a much larger role in shaping
no-limit strategy than their frequency would
suggest.
Two Keys To Big Bluffs
Opportunities to run big bluffs arise fairly commonly. But to run
bluffs effectively, you need to figure out which opportunities are good
PLANNING BIG BLUFFS 265
and which ones aren t. There are two keys to identifying good
situations for big bluffs:
1. Be aware of your opponent s hand range and which hands out
of that range you would expect him to call a big bet or get all-
in with.
2. Be aware of what your hand range looks like to your
opponent, and know when you can plausibly represent a hand
that would justify a big bet.
Here s an example of using the two keys to identify a good
bluffing opportunity:
You re in the big blind of a $1 $2 6-max game with $200 effective
stacks. A relatively tight player in the hijack opens for $6. A bad
player calls on the button, and you call with 8e&7e&. The flop comes
9c& 6e&2f& giving you an open-ended straight draw on a rainbow board.
You check, and the preflop raiser bets $14 into the $19 pot. The
button folds, and you call. The turn is the 2e&, pairing the board but
giving you a flush draw to go with your straight draw. You check, and
your opponent bets $30 into the $47 pot.
You call. The river is the 9`&. You missed your draws entirely, and
the board has now double paired. There s $107 in the pot and $150
left in the stacks.
What is your opponent s hand range in this situation? He s a tight
player who raised preflop from the hijack, so high card hands and
pocket pairs are the most likely starters for him.
You checked the flop, and he bet more than 2/3 pot into two
players on a dry, raggedy board. He might have an overpair or
possibly just two overcards. Far less likely, but still possible, is that he
flopped a set.
Would your opponent bet overcards into two players? It s possible,
depending on how aggressive the player is. Most decent players
realize that continuation betting tends to be more successfully on
uncoordinated flops than coordinated ones. So your opponent might
assume that he s more likely than usual to get folds from both
opponents and try it.
266 SMALL STAKES NO-LIMIT HOLD EM
Now an innocuous-looking card comes on the turn, and your
opponent bets again. A second bet tends to carry more implied
strength than the first one, as your opponent might check through the
turn with some of the overcard hands in his range. So he could easily
have an overpair. He could also have decided to fire again with
overcards, hoping that you called the flop with a weak pair that you ll
now release to the bigger show of strength. He may have decided to
fire again particularly if his overcards were suited hearts like Ae&Ke&
or Ke&Je&.
He could also have some less likely hands. He might hold a nine
with a hand like Af&9f& or Tf&9f&. He might have 99, 66, or 22. He
could hold a straight draw with a different combination of 87. It s also
possible (but quite unlikely) that he holds a deuce.
Overall, however, the most likely hands in terms of the number of
possible combinations and consistency with the betting so far are
overpairs and overcards (possibly suited hearts) with nines and sets
less likely.
The river puts a second pair on board. Which hands in your
opponent s turn range would he now like to get all-in with? Likely he
would be comfortable getting all-in with only the hands that contain a
9 (A9s, T9s, 99, etc.) and 22. Overcards, overpairs, and even 66 now
have to worry that you hold a 9 and therefore a stronger hand.
So the hands that made up the bulk of the opponent s range on the
turn overpairs and overcards now don t want to get all-in. Only a
relatively small percentage of that turn range will now want to get it
in.
Let s re-examine the hand from your opponent s perspective. What
hands can he put you on?
You called a standard-sized preflop raise out of the big blind after
a poor player entered the pot. You could hold quite a wide range of
hands. Your opponent can probably discount the strongest hands, as
you may have reraised with hands such as pocket aces, kings, queens,
or ace-king.
You checked and called on a raggedy, rainbow flop. With so few
draws available on the flop, your opponent would rightly assume that
most of your range consists of made hands rather than draws: mostly
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